Ag Newsletter - 4 September 2026
Welcome to this week’s Drover Ag update. In this edition, we break down ABARES’ latest $99.4 billion farm production forecast, examine why livestock saleyards are defying global export headwinds, and highlight key market shifts across grain, wool, and broadacre operations—plus 33 active roles now live on the job board.
Weather:
Western Australia Receives Timely 50mm Rainfall Boost - Cold fronts crossing south-western Australia delivered crucial rainfall of up to 50 millimetres across Western Australian cropping regions in the first week of September. This timely moisture boost is expected to support winter crop yield potential and above-average pasture growth as crops enter the critical spring maturation phase. Source: DAFF
Livestock Markets:
Cattle: Restocker Demand Defies Export Headwinds
- EYCI Rallies on Restocker Demand: Reversing a late-winter slump, the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) rallied to 971c/kg cwt by late August on the back of tightening yardings and timely rain. Entering September, national yardings lifted 11% to 53,816 head, yet the Restocker Yearling Steer Indicator still jumped a further 8% as southern buyers aggressively competed for stock. (Source: Beef Central/MLA Weekly Wrap)
- US Export Pressures Emerge: While national slaughter remains robust at 146,129 head per week, export margins are tightening. Lean 90CL cow beef values to the US have eased significantly, heavily pressured by a recent US policy shift granting tariff-free access for an additional 300,000 tonnes of South American (Brazilian) beef, directly eroding Australia's tariff advantage. (Source: Elders Spring Outlook)
Sheep & Lamb: Spring Flush Meets Surging Prices
- Spring Lambs Hit the Market: Saleyard volumes are climbing, with the national lamb yarding lifting 9% in early September to 128,513 head as new season spring lambs arrive. Despite the supply bump, intense buying competition pushed the Restocker Lamb Indicator up an incredible 13% week-on-week to 1,177c/kg cwt. (Source: MLA Weekly Wrap)
- Sheep Supply Tightens: In contrast to the lamb flush, national sheep yardings fell 16% to 42,604 head. After battling softer mutton prices in August, this tightening of supply has seen all sheep and lamb indicators lift across the board, reflecting a market where producers are confidently holding breeding stock. (Source: MLA Weekly Wrap)
Wool Market:
Shorn Wool Output Forecast at 249.3 Mkg for 2026/27 - The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) updated its official national production forecast, estimating shorn wool output for the 2026/27 season at 249.3 million kilograms (Mkg) greasy—a modest 1.8% drop year-on-year.
AWPFC Chair Stephen Hill noted that while total clip volume remains constrained by a national flock of 56.3 million head, an 80-point year-on-year rise in producer confidence (driven by the Eastern Market Indicator holding around 1,853 c/kg) points toward flock rebuilding. Favourable winter feed availability across SA, Victoria, and WA continues to support high fleece weights per head. Source: Australian Wool Innovation (AWI)
Water:
Murray-Darling Basin Inflows - Following late August rainfall across the southern and central catchments, water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 506 gigalitres over the past week. The total volume of water held in MDB storages now sits at 14,714 GL, equivalent to 66% of total capacity. While this is 3% lower than the same time last year, it provides a stable baseline for southern irrigators preparing for summer allocations. DAFF
Ag Industry Outlook:
ABARES Projects Farmgate Production at $99.4 Billion - The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) released its latest quarterly agricultural commodities outlook, forecasting total national farmgate production value at $99.4 billion for 2026–27 (or $105.6 billion including forestry and fisheries). While down 5% from last year's record $104.6 billion, broadacre farm business profit is projected to average $133,000 per farm—remaining 6% above the 10-year historical average.
ABARES Acting Executive Director David Galeano noted that while overall winter crop output is forecast to ease 12% to 61 million tonnes, strong subsoil moisture profiles across Victoria, South Australia, and southern NSW will buffer crops against a drier spring outlook. Source: ABARES / DAFF
Summer Cropping Outlook:
ABARES forecast total summer crop production to drop 25% to 3.4 million tonnes for 2026–27—11% below the 10-year average.
The decline is led by a 34% drop in cotton production (down to 679,000 tonnes or 3 million bales) and a 26% fall in national grain sorghum production (1.9 million tonnes). ABARES attributes the contraction to reduced irrigation water allocations in the Murray-Darling Basin and lower topsoil moisture across northern NSW and southern Queensland, though late spring rainfall could prompt opportunistic opportunistic late sorghum plantings. Source: ABARES / Grain Central
Ag Employment Landscape:
NFF Highlights Vital Role of Backpackers in Regions - The National Farmers' Federation (NFF), in collaboration with regional tourism and backpacker peak bodies, released a comprehensive report emphasising the critical economic and operational value of the Working Holiday Maker (WHM) visa program. The data suggests that backpackers are a vital workforce for Australian farmers, comprising 14% of all farm worker jobs nationally, with reliance jumping to 44% in horticulture, 31% in grains, 26% in red meat, and 25% in cotton.
Amid ongoing federal discussions regarding regional migration and potential changes to the 88-day specified work requirement for visa extensions, the NFF is actively advocating to protect these regional incentives. The federation warned that removing the regional work requirement would severely exacerbate chronic labour shortages across the bush, jeopardising workforce continuity for the upcoming harvest and costing the agricultural sector billions in lost production. Source: National Farmers' Federation (NFF)
Commodity Markets & Inputs:
Rabobank Monthly Signals Softer Fertiliser Prices - Rabobank published its September 2026 Agribusiness Monthly, reporting that widespread August rainfall across key southern broadacre zones significantly boosted crop yield potential.
Global wheat and canola values remain supported by Black Sea export disruptions and strong international vegetable oil demand. On the farm inputs front, global urea and synthetic fertiliser prices have softened due to expanding export supply out of China and India, providing welcome margin relief for grain growers preparing for spring application and top-dressing windows. Source: Rabobank Australia Research
Biosecurity:
MLA Issues Avian Influenza Monitoring Guidance for Grazing Operations - Following national Biosecurity Week activities, Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) released an updated biosecurity advisory for pastoral beef and sheep producers regarding wild bird activity across livestock production zones.
While the risk to domestic red meat herds from H5N1 avian influenza strains remains low, MLA stressed that producer vigilance is critical for early containment. Source: Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA)
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